The chimera of control

Control is like El Dorado: the more you talk or think about it, the more realistic it seems to be. But - like the Spaniards in South America who found gold, but not enough – expectations outstrip reality. The amount of control you actually have over your life is usually not even close to what you hoped for, or dreamed of. All over the world (and probably more in the Western World than elsewhere) we overestimate our own ability to control the world around us.

It is possible that this overestimation (which could also be seen as overconfidence, pride, or even vanity) is due at least in part to the success we have had individually, and on a small scale, in controlling the physical world around us. We can plow the earth, move and break rocks, forge metal, make tools and pottery, build houses, make plants grow where we want them to. And when we pool our resources, we can build bridges and waterworks, move mountains and rivers, drain swamps, and redistribute the available energy to suit our needs. But we are finding that all those individual efforts have a huge collective impact that we do not yet know how to control. (In that sense, we are a bit like the stromatolites (colonial reef-building organisms), who, when life was just beginning, kick-started all further life on this planet by producing oxygen. Their impact was enormous, but they had no control over what was happening. In fact, they themselves went into steep decline, because the oxygen they produced – however useful for us - was actually poisonous to them. )

The problem, of course, is that although we are relatively good at controlling certain parts of the physical world, we are not much good at predicting the long-term results of our collective actions, and even worse at controlling complex systems involving other living organisms. A few examples.

• Some 70% or more of business projects fail, because of systemic problems that are almost impossible to control (see the theories of Demming for more on this).
• For years, hunting foxes was justified by claiming that it was necessary to keep the population of predators in certain areas low. In fact, it has now been shown that hunting has no noticeable impact on the total number of foxes, because the survivors simply have larger litters.
• Ever since the invention of antibiotics, people hoped that it would be possible to completely eradicate certain (or maybe even all) infectious diseases. So far … (need I spell it out?).
• President Obama, possibly the most powerful president of any democratic country, had perfectly reasonable plans for the future of his country, but is finding it almost impossible to turn them into reality.
• The Unites States foreign policy of the past 40-50 years seems based on the belief that it is possible to exact real change in other countries by the use of force, in spite of a long list of examples to the contrary.
• The Western World is only slowly beginning to realize that a lot of “well-intentioned aid” to the third world is not having the effect they hoped (I put well-intentioned in brackets, because often, the cost of “progress” – in terms of loss of cultural values etc. - may be more than the beneficiaries want to pay).
• Governments have been trying to control the economy ever since money was invented, but recent events have made it very clear how elusive and fickle economies are. (Which is not to say that I advocate a totally "free" marketplace - that is probably worse).  

I have in fact arrived at the conclusion that the only things that I personally have any control over (and this only if I am willing to dedicate a lot of time and energy to them) is my garden, what I write (not even what I say!), and (again to a very limited degree, and only as regards certain aspects) the behavior of my children. Which is a good description of how I see retirement: me and my wife in our garden, writing, and hopefully visited by our children from time to time.